By Dr. Brian O. Reuben – Executive Chairman, The Sixteenth Council www.16thcouncil.uk
1. Middle East & North Africa — “Blue Gold on the Brink”
Backdrop:
Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), per capita water availability is projected to fall below the absolute scarcity threshold by 2030. Shared rivers and aquifers–the Nile, Jordan, and Tigris-Euphrates among them–are becoming flashpoints in a region already riven by conflict and climate stress.
Current Dynamics:
The latest round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has stalled, heightening fears of unilateral action. Yemen’s war continues to weaponize access to water infrastructure, while Israel’s control of West Bank water remains a persistent grievance. Libya and Syria are both struggling to repair or secure war-damaged water networks. At the same time, Gulf states are racing to scale up desalination and invest in “water diplomacy” as a tool of soft power.
Implications:
Water security is no longer just an environmental or development issue–it is a first-order geopolitical risk. Governments and corporations operating in the region must treat water infrastructure as critical national security assets. Investors in agriculture, energy, and urban development should factor water scarcity into pricing, insurance, and risk models.
Early Warning Indicators:
Track Ethiopia–Egypt–Sudan talks over the GERD, including troop movements near disputed border zones; watch for new desalination tenders and sovereign water funds in Gulf capitals; monitor regional food price indices–sharp increases often precede unrest tied to water shortages.
2. Serbia — “Protests and Parades”
Backdrop:
Serbia sits at a strategic crossroads between EU and Russian spheres of influence. For years, President Aleksandar Vučić has maintained a balancing act–courting Brussels economically while maintaining security ties with Moscow. That equilibrium is now under unprecedented strain.
Current Dynamics:
The collapse of a €65 million construction project in Belgrade triggered a wave of anti-corruption protests, led initially by student groups but now drawing workers and middle-class professionals nationwide. The unrest coincided with a high-profile military parade showcasing tanks and missiles, reinforcing perceptions of creeping authoritarianism. EU officials have signaled concern but stopped short of sanctions, while Russia has offered rhetorical support for Belgrade.
3. Pakistan — “Democracy Under Siege”
Backdrop:
Pakistan is navigating overlapping crises: chronic fiscal imbalance, militancy near its borders, and a paralyzing confrontation between populist forces and the military establishment. The result is a fragile state apparatus vulnerable to shocks.
Current Dynamics:
Since the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan has seen repeated street protests, arrests of opposition figures, and an uptick in militant attacks along the Afghan border. The IMF standby arrangement provides short-term liquidity but imposes politically painful reforms. Meanwhile, China’s investments through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are slowing amid security fears, and Gulf states are demanding more transparency in exchange for bailouts.
Implications:
Investors and diplomatic partners should treat Pakistan as a high-volatility environment where policy continuity cannot be assumed. Defense procurement, energy projects, and trade corridors all risk disruption. NGOs and development agencies must plan for humanitarian spillovers from displaced populations if unrest deepens.
Early Warning Indicators:
Track the Supreme Court’s rulings on election scheduling; monitor the army’s internal reshuffles; watch for IMF program slippage or Chinese debt renegotiations. A sudden spike in the rupee-dollar rate or fuel price protests would indicate rising instability.
4. Japan — “Tokyo in Turmoil”
Backdrop:
Japan’s reputation for political stability has taken a hit with the resignation of its prime minister less than a year after taking office–the third leadership change in five years. This turbulence arrives as Tokyo negotiates major trade and defense initiatives with Washington and regional partners.
Current Dynamics:
Factional infighting within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has paralyzed policymaking on immigration, energy transition, and semiconductor subsidies. Meanwhile, yen volatility is at its highest since 2013, complicating export forecasts. Regional tensions–particularly over Taiwan–have elevated defense spending, but procurement timelines are slipping amid leadership churn. Business lobbies are pressing for continuity to secure green tech and supply-chain resilience measures.
Implications:
A prolonged leadership vacuum could slow ratification of trade deals and stall major infrastructure or defense projects, with ripple effects across Asia’s manufacturing networks. Companies should hedge currency exposure and build scenarios for regulatory delays.
Early Warning Indicators:
Monitor the LDP leadership race and cabinet reshuffles; track Bank of Japan bond-buying signals and exchange-rate interventions; watch for delays or amendments to pending bills on immigration reform and defense industrial cooperation.
5. Sub-Saharan Africa — “Mission 300: Powering the Dark Continent”
Backdrop:
Global energy demand keeps rising, and Sub-Saharan Africa remains the largest pocket of energy poverty. The World Bank’s new Mission 300 aims to bring clean electricity to 300 million people, mainly through off-grid solar and mini-grids.
Current Dynamics:
Mission 300 dovetails with African governments’ push to attract private investment in renewables but collides with currency risk, subsidy removal, and weak power-purchase agreements. China, the EU, and Gulf sovereign funds are circling to co-finance, but high borrowing costs and security threats (Sahel insurgencies, resource nationalism) could derail timelines.
Implications:
If successful, Mission 300 would create one of the fastest expansions of decentralized energy in history, reshaping everything from rural productivity to carbon markets. For corporates, it’s a once-in-a-generation chance to stake positions in African clean tech, but the political risk premium remains high.
Early Warning Indicators:
Watch World Bank procurement announcements; track security incidents near proposed sites; monitor local tariff reforms and sovereign credit downgrades.
6. France — “The Fifth Prime Minister”
Backdrop:
France has ousted its fifth prime minister in just two years, signaling deep institutional malaise. President Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu within 24 hours, a speed that underscores political fragility.
Current Dynamics:
Domestic protests over pension reform and immigration have eroded parliamentary confidence. Lecornu must steer a fractious National Assembly while EU elections loom and far-right forces grow. The government’s ability to push through budgetary and defense commitments–including Ukraine aid–is at risk.
Implications:
Political churn undermines investor confidence and France’s ability to lead EU policy on security, digital regulation, and green subsidies. Defense contractors and energy firms face possible renegotiation or delays.
Early Warning Indicators:
Track Lecornu’s approval ratings, Assembly defections, and French bond spreads; monitor yellow-vest-style mobilizations ahead of EU elections.
7. Eastern Europe/NATO — “Fortifying the Frontier”
Backdrop:
Russia’s repeated airspace incursions and cyber operations are testing NATO’s response capacity. Eastern flank nations–Poland, the Baltics, Romania–are doubling down on border fortifications.
Current Dynamics:
NATO has promised a “collective response” but avoided specifics. National parliaments are passing emergency defense bills and announcing record procurement of drones, missile systems, and digital surveillance. Civil society is shifting toward preparedness culture, reminiscent of Cold War Finland.
Implications:
Companies in defense, logistics, and cyber will see surging demand but must also navigate export controls and potential retaliation by Russia. Political risk in non-NATO neighbors (Moldova, Georgia) is increasing as Moscow tests hybrid warfare.
Stay tuned to this space for the continuation of this insightful article
To see the full write up click here 16th Council
Dr. Brian O. Reuben, Executive Chairman of 16th Council UK.
